This is going to be a reasonably short post because after watching a race for 10 hours, taking almost 3000 words in notes (along with my fellow motorsport journalist, and all-round superstar, Mo Rehman), and writing around 3000 prose words already today (including a 1700-word Hypercar race report), I'm shattered. But I couldn't resist taking a quick look at the analysis file WEC and Al Kamel send out before heading to bed.
The question on my, and I think most people's lips, after the Qatar 1812km, won comfortably by Ferrari in dominant 1-2-3 fashion, is: could Cadillac have challenged for the win today?
We know from the Prologue and free practice analysis that the two pacesetters, from when wheels first hit the track surface last Friday, were Cadillac and Ferrari. We were expecting an almighty battle between them in the race.
Phil Oakley
However, after that crash 2h20m (roughly) in, both Cadillacs had damage of some form which meant they weren't racing at their full potential. So we only got two hours of them racing at their full potential.
Plus, because they were both racing mid pack after separate incidents for both Will Stevens and Earl Bamber in the first hour, they were naturally going to be slower than the leading two Ferraris. Both the Italian cars were in clean air and not fighting for position, which obviously slows you down considerably.
And, track conditions also changed massively in the race, as it went from warm and sunny in the daylight, to dark and cold in the night time as it neared midnight and the end of the race.
So, it's hard to say for sure what Cadillac could have done.
But, my instinct is yes, they could have done.
The data shows us that, in the first hour, the #38 Cadillac of Earl Bamber was two tenths faster, when you take his top 20% laps and average them out, compared to the #51 Ferrari of James Calado.
The Kiwi sat fourth for the first 15 minutes, until he was spun — or rather, spun himself — while passing bronze-rated James Cottingham, in the #59 United Autosports McLaren, tagging the McLaren at turn 1 and spinning as a result.
He dropped back to 14th, but then went on a tear, setting two overall fastest laps, then setting another on the hour. After the pitstops had shaken out, he sat an incredible sixth – partly due to strategy work from JOTA and Cadillac.
In the second hour, he was even quicker, with an average of 1:43.144. To further solidify the fact the Cadillacs had genuine pace, at least in the day-time, Stevens had an average over the hour of 1:43.337, second quickest on average.
The next quickest average was the Calado, in the #51 Ferrari, almost three tenths on average off Bamber.
After the crash, the #12 Cadillac, with Stevens replaced by Lynn, was still relatively fast — fourth quickest on average, two and a bit tenths slower than Calado's teammate Antonio Giovinazzi in the #51 Ferrari. Jenson Button, who had replaced Bamber in the #38, was among the slowest cars on average that hour.
So, we'll have to wait to see how well the 2009 F1 world champion has adapted to the Cadillac, after a year in the Porsche.
If you want more evidence, look at the overall averages, calculated by averaging out each hourly average for each car.
The #12 Cadillac was the fastest car, on average, after the three Ferraris. And Stevens, Lynn, and Nato were only just over two tenths slower per lap over 10 hours. Plus, they were almost certainly carrying almost some form of damage to the front end of the car after Lynn rear-ended the team car.
But anyway. Did Cadillac have the pace to challenge Ferrari? An emphatic yes. The crash inadvertently robbed us of a great battle between Ferrari and Cadillac today.
But, one thing is for sure: JOTA and Cadillac mean business this season.
I'm off to bed. Good night. There'll be more analysis of the race at Qatar over the weekend and into next week. But first, I need rest.
See the full race results from Qatar here, and if you're interested in checking out the analysis, it's here.
