As ever in IMSA, the battle for the win at this year's 12 Hours of Sebring will be very close, if the long run data from the three practice sessions is anything to go by.
While BMW's Dries Vanthoor took pole for the second time in a row in IMSA competition, it's their German manufacturer rival Porsche who look the strongest for race day.
Porsche top long runs in FP1 and FP2
The #6 Porsche set the fastest long run in the opening practice session, in the hands of Mathieu Jaminet. However, this was only five laps long — the car only did 15 laps in the session — from lap 11 to 15.
The #10 Cadillac, in the hands of Filipe Albuquerque, started his longest run of the session on the same lap, but went longer, to lap 19. He was more than four tenths off on average, but that may be because the run was longer — we simply can't tell.
Similarly, as usual with data from practice sessions, we don't know about fuel levels. Even though Jaminet pitted the Porsche after only five laps, he could have been fueled for more. It's very hard to know.
The fastest BMW was the #24 — in fact, the #24 the fastest BMW in each of the three sessions, on average — in fourth, behind both Porsches.
Philipp Eng's long run in the car, from lap 14 to 27, was the longest GTP run of the session, placing him fourth. That seems very good for BMW, and just a few mere hundredths behind Daytona winner Nick Tandy in the #7 Porsche, whose long run was from lap 11-17.
The two Acuras were together, Renger van der Zande in the #93 and Tom Blomqvist, on a longer, slightly slower run in the #60. Both started on lap 11 but whereas the Dutchman pitted on lap 16, Blomqvist went a few laps longer, pulling into the pit lane on lap 19.
Looking at FP2, and the #6 Porsche, this time with Kevin Estre at the wheel, is again faster.
Estre's long run is much longer than Jaminet's in FP1 — three times as long, at 15 laps.
The big movers in this session, though, are Acura. They jump up though, with the #93 of Indycar star Alex Palou just a smidge over three tenths off Estre, on average, a lap. The sister car is fourth, behind the #7 Porsche, although those two and the #85 JDC Miller Porsche are all very close.
In fact, you could add the #5 Proton Porsche and the #24 BMW into that mix as well.
Cadillac appear to have lost out massively in FP2, with the three slowest long runs. They're slower even than backmarkers Lamborghini and new boys Aston Martin, and by some margin too. Together with a subpar qualifying performance, maybe things aren't looking all too rosy at Cadillac right now.
BMW jump ahead in FP3
Kevin Magnussen's long run in the third practice session jumped him ahead of the Porsches. The #24 BMW driver was almost half a second quicker than Tandy and Jaminet behind him.
The Acuras were behind the Porsches and BMWs again, although not by much and likely not enough to 'worry' the team at Meyer Shank or HRC US.
There's seven tenths there between the top six cars — again, very close, certainly within a margin of era.
The Cadillacs, again, seem to struggle slightly. A trend seems to be that the Wayne Taylor Racing-run cars, the #10 and the #40, are slower than the #31. This does make some sense, as WTR are still new to the Cadillac, whereas AXR have been racing it since 2023.
Aston Martin were, once again, ahead of Lamborghini. As the BoP analysis showed, Lamborghini have by far the best power-to-weight ratio of any GTP car in the field, so to be behind a car making its series debut and competitive debut at Sebring... 😬
Phil Oakley
What does this all mean?
As the results from each session are relatively consistent, we can form somewhat of a pace guide.
In the graphs above, we've created some averages to put together what we think the order will be. In the first graph, we've added together the averages from each session for each team to find an average for each across all sessions. If a team has two cars this means we're adding six individual averages together. If a team has one, that means just three.
In the second graph, we've taken the best average from each session for each team. If a team only has a single car, that's not possible — so the six out of the nine teams displayed are identical across both graphs.
The top three teams, though, do have two cars. The order doesn't change and the gaps between each don't change either.
While it's hard to draw any real, definitive conclusions — there are just too many variables — the consistency indicates this is what we might see in the race. Porsche a couple of tenths a lap quicker than BMW, with Acura a further few tenths back.
Cadillac, meanwhile, will likely struggle. They may be more than a second a lap on average off Porsche. Aston Martin may be faster than Lamborghini, although both will likely just be aiming to finish the race.
Feature image: Jacob Saddler
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