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There's no two ways about it: Ferrari and Cadillac are looking quick, with the FIA World Endurance Championship's pre season testing event, the Prologue, done and dusted.
The two were near or at the top of the fastest lap times almost all the time — Cadillac had a car in the top 5 of each of the four sessions, and Ferrari went one better by having a car in the top 3 in every session.
But the overall fastest laps don't really matter because the race next weekend at Qatar is 10 hours long. So, it's the long runs for each team and car which will propel them to victory.
Only Endurance has crunched the numbers and put together a rough hierarchy that can be used as a yardstick going into race week.
Methodology: we've found each car's longest stint in each session and averaged out the lap times to create a single average for each car. Laps under full course yellow have been removed, and out laps, plus the following lap, have also been removed.
All images credit WEC / DPPI unless otherwise mentioned
Day 1 — red, red, red
As you can see from the graphs, the two Ferraris reigned supreme in the long runs in the opening day of the Prologue.
The #51 car's stints were session topping in both cases. James Calado's 27 lap stint in the first session was enough to put him top, by just over a tenth from his teammate Miguel Molina in the sister #50 car.
The #94 Peugeot was, perhaps, a surprise third, but as we'll see, this may not be a fluke from the French manufacturer. Loic Duval's stint in the opening session, though, was quite short — just nine laps.
The two BMWs looked quick too, but the two Toyotas were only mid pack. A sign of things to come? Unlikely given Toyota's experience; they tend to quietly go about their business, shock no one, and then are very rapid in race week.
BMW's Robin Frijns said in a statement to media: 'I think it went alright. We had a test programme before arriving to Qatar, we followed it pretty much and everything feel fine.
'Now we need to put the puzzle together and prepare ourselves for the race weekend which is a bit different.
'As we don’t drive at night during FP1 and FP2, today was our only opportunity so that was quite important for us. Now it’s all about discussions and see how we can improve the package we have for the race.'
The Porsches were surprisingly far back in both sessions on day 1, and on the second day too (spoilers). Again, this could just be a case of the German manufacturer sandbagging... or they could be lacking pace. It is impossible to know until next week.
However, the real stars were the JOTA-run Cadillacs. The American manufacturer now has two cars, run by JOTA, a team with an immense amount of experience and knowledge in the WEC. They placed fourth and fifth in the second session, behind the trio of Ferraris – excellent work from the new partnership.
The #38 car, in the hands of Jenson Button, did a 30 lap stint in the second session, while Alex Lynn did 20 laps in the sister #12 car.
'If the path you travel is down a corridor, our corridor is very wide at the moment because we’re making sweeping changes to try different things, which is what testing is for,' said JOTA co-founder and director Sam Hignett.
'What’s really encouraging is wherever we go, it’s a definitive answer. We’re narrowing the corridor to find the best window where the car operates.
'We should roll into race weekend in pretty good shape. We can go testing and do things, but it’s just not the same as being at the Prologue. There’s so many bits and pieces, working with the other cars, GT car traffic, working with the race director, pit lane rules and full-course yellows. It is absolutely the best test session we do all year.'
Otherwise, Alpine were there or thereabouts, eighth in both session with either car. The #36 was the top car for the French manufacturer in the first session, with Jules Gounon doing a 12 lap stint in the car. Paul-Loup Chatin did Alpine's quickest stint in the next session, quicker than Gounon's from the earlier session and slightly longer too, at 15 laps.
This, though, is still far short of the 31-32 lap stints the Hypercars were managing last year, with BMW confirming to media that they're aiming for similar stint lengths this year.
Finally, Aston Martin were in the mix with the new Valkyrie, putting the car through its paces, on track with its WEC competition for the first time.
Tom Gamble did a 28 lap stint in the second session, 1.6s off the pace on average. Good work from the Briton, with a Hypercar a huge step up from the GT3s he's been used to in previous years.
Day 2 — a mixed bag
In some ways, the second day of the Prologue was a continuation of the first. Cadillac and Ferrari continue look strong, while others are peeking their heads above the parapet.
But, it's worth noting a few things here.
Firstly: Alpine and BMW are beginning to show pace. It's both manufacturers sophomore seasons in the WEC with their Hypercars, and maybe the pace that we know is in those cars is starting to emerge. It certainly looked as though that were the case at the end of last year.
Gounon did his magic in the fourth session to go second quickest on average, under two and a half tenths off Ferrari's Antonio Fuoco. The Frenchman in the French car did a 23 lap stint to achieve this. Fuoco, on the other hand, managed 25 laps before pitting. Good showing for Alpine.
Behind Gounon was Bamber, who completed a full 30 lap stint, just 0.055 off the Frenchman on average.
BMW, meanwhile, in the first session managed a 10 lap stint, with Raffaele Marciello at the wheel of the #15 car, to go third.
This was only 10 laps though. The German manufacturer's longer stints, in the fourth session, were some way down the order.
Peugeot, too, impressed, sixth in the third session and sixth and seventh in the fourth. They were long stints, too, in the fourth session — 25 for Mikkel Jensen in the #93, 30 for Stoffel Vandoorne in the sister #94.
Toyota and Porsche continued to be, perhaps, slightly lacklustre. That said, the #6 Porsche, in the hands of Kevin Estre, was only three and a half tenths off Fuoco in the fourth session, with an 18 lap stint.
The Toyotas, meanwhile, did 30 lap stints in the fourth session, with Ryo Hirakawa in the #8 car and Nyck de Vries in the #7 machine. Considering most other cars in front of them did shorter stints... maybe it's not looking so bad for Toyota.
And anyway, there's a good chance they're sandbagging.
Making sense of all this
However, even with averaged out long run data, it's hard to actually make sense of all this data. So, in order to try and put together some kind of hierarchy, we've done more sums.
The first graph, above, shows the average from each manufacturer two cars (for simplicity's sake we've cut the two customer cars from this section), averaging out the eight values from the sessions, four from each car (one for each session).
This shows Cadillac and Ferrari are, essentially, neck and neck — just four thousandths in it. BMW aren't far back at all, a tenth and a half or so, and Peugeot are just a couple of tenths back from BMW.
Alpine and Toyota are very similar — a hundredth in it — with Porsche a little further back and Aston Martin, as can be expected given they've got a brand new car, in last.
But, if you take a manufacturer's best average from each session — so we're only averaging out four values, instead of eight — the picture changes slightly.
When looking through this lens, Ferrari have jumped Cadillac and now sit over two tenths on average faster than the American manufacturer. Peugeot have also jumped BMW, although it is ridiculously close between the two. Alpine are also within a tenth of both.
Toyota, Porsche and Aston Martin remain in the same order, roughly the same distance apart, although Toyota have dropped a bit off the back of Alpine.
Conclusions
Really, this doesn't mean much. The teams won't have been running the cars at full pace just yet and the drivers won't have been pushing. We don't know what tyre compounds or sets they were on — WEC's timing does not give access to this data — and we don't know fuel loads.
Or, maybe, it could be a decently accurate barometer. Who knows; it's impossible to say right now.
If you go one further and average out the two values for each manufacturer above, Ferrari are ahead, followed by Cadillac, BMW, Peugeot, Alpine, Toyota, Porsche and Aston Martin.
But that could, and probably will, all change in race week.
We'll be back with the charts and graphs to analyse the free practice sessions and qualifying, and to examine how the order has changed since the Prologue. Catch you then.
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